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Conditional Poisson
Suppose we have a Poisson process with $\lambda = 0.25 \text{s}^{-1}$ . After $t=60$ seconds, $7$ events have occurred. At $t=100$ seconds, what's the expected number of events to have occurred?
The key to solving this question is to recognise that time increments in the Poisson distribution are independent. Given a number of events $N_t$ occurring by time $t$, we want to solve
$$
\text{E} \left[ N_{100} | N_{60} = 7 \right].
$$
Regardless of the number of events that have happened up to 60 seconds, the expected number of events in the next $t$ seconds is given by
$$
\text{E} \left[ N_t \right] = \lambda t.
$$
For the next 40 seconds then, the expected number of events is
$$
\text{E}\left[ N_{40} \right] = 0.25 \times 40 = 10.
$$
Therefore, the expected number of events at $t=100$ is 17.